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Producer Manual · Chapter 8 · NBA Top Shot & Disney Pinnacle

Nobody hits a dead end

Every purchase moves a collector forward, and every collector has a next move, whether they won, lost, or never entered the draw at all.

Two versions of a miss

An example, to show the difference.

A miss, and nothing else

  • The draw closes. The screen says "Sold out."
  • No mention of a Chance Hit pack, a set challenge, or a trade-in.
  • No message arrives afterward.

The collector closes the app, with no reason to open it again before the next drop.

A miss, and a next move

  • The draw closes. The screen names what's open right now: a Chance Hit pack, a set challenge, or a trade-in.
  • A message arrives, built on what that collector already owns or almost owns.
  • Their progress toward the next rung of access is already visible.

The collector has somewhere to go before the next drop even starts.

How to do it

  1. 1

    Give every pull a destination

    A duplicate, a Common, or a low pull in a Chance Hit pack should always become something: trade-in credit, progress on a set, or a step toward the next rung of access. When collectors coin their own word for the waste, like calling a spare pull "fodder" or a "dead pull," that word is the signal: give that pull a use.

    Guard: set what each trade-in pays so it can't be repeated for profit.
  2. 2

    Put it on one meter

    A collector shouldn't have to track several currencies to know how close they are to something; one visible progress bar does more than many hidden counters that only the most dedicated players bother to learn.

  3. 3

    Explain it in the right order

    When you explain a duplicate or trade-in system to collectors, go in this order: what goes wrong without it (spare pieces pile up with no use), then the fix, then the exact numbers.

  4. 4

    Give the right next move after a miss

    A collector who doesn't win a draw needs the next move built for who they are, not a generic "shop now." That could be a Chance Hit pack with its own chases, a set challenge already within reach, a trade-in for pieces already on hand, or a new set just starting, with nobody ahead yet.

  5. 5

    Make finishing a set the reason to buy again

    Supply is at its highest right after a drop, which is exactly when a collector needs a reason to buy now aimed at completing serialised sets while the pieces are still around to find. The set-completion leaderboard and celebrating the first collectors to finish are the start of that reason; Chapter 2 covers the celebration.

    Completing a set should also earn a challenge reward, and the reward should ask the collector to put something in. For example: a reward pack for finishing a set during its season, or a reward Moment at the season's end for keeping the full set locked. The first collectors to finish get the best serials of the reward.

    Guard: the leaderboard ranks sets completed, not money spent, so buying up duplicates doesn't move anyone up it.
Duplicates Trade-ins Set pieces Chance Hit pulls Progress Next rung of access
Every kind of pull feeds the same meter. What's on the other end is the next rung of access.

What it looks like

Examples of the move, not plans.

NBA Top Shot · after a Box draw

"Missing the draw isn't the end of the season."

  • Chance Hit packs from the new class stay open, with their own chases.
  • The previous season's Common set still counts toward Pack priority on what comes next.
  • Surplus Commons trade in for credit toward the next qualifying set.
Disney Pinnacle · after a priority draw

"Missing the draw isn't the end of the collection."

  • A quest tied to the new collection is already live, building toward priority on what comes next.
  • Chance Hit packs from the current collection stay open, with their own chases.
  • The first collectors to finish the collection are already being celebrated on the leaderboard.

Who hears what, when they miss

The next move changes with who's hearing it.

CollectorWhat they hearWhere
Grail CollectorThe next lock that gets you first shotThe drop page, and email
Completionist"You're [N] away. A trade-in closes the gap."A push or in-app message triggered by their own progress
Collector-SpeculatorToday's Chance Hit pulls, and what's live right nowThe drop page, and email
Social Fan"Your player" or "your character" is already in the next set, and what friends are pulling todaySocial media, and push
NewcomerThe easiest way to start today, free or smallThe home screen, and social

When it breaks

Picture a collector who opens the app the moment a draw closes. The only thing on screen is "Sold out." No next set, no Chance Hit pack, no trade-in, no mention of what's still open. They close the app, and nothing calls them back before the next drop is announced.

The fix: design the losing screen with the same care as the winning one. It always names at least one way to keep going, matched to what that collector already owns or almost owns.

Questions for your drop

  1. What does every duplicate, low pull, or leftover set piece turn into?
  2. Can a collector see their progress on one meter, or do they have to track it themselves across several systems?
  3. What's on screen the moment someone loses a draw, misses a window, or never entered at all?
  4. What's the right next move for each kind of collector, and is it personal or a generic "shop now"?
  5. What's the reason to buy right now, aimed at finishing a set, for someone who just missed the drop?
  6. Where could a benefit here be farmed, and what guards against it?