Scarcity at the top is what makes a drop worth chasing, but scarcity on its own shuts most collectors out of the room. The answer is layers, not a compromise: fix the rarest products at a small, published number, and build a wide floor underneath where every collector can buy something today and see exactly what it takes to climb.
An example, to show the difference.
Scarcity without layers reads as bad luck, not as status.
Every collector can buy something today, and see what it takes to climb.
Name the rarest product first: Courtside Box, then Case, then Box, then Pack, open to all. On Pinnacle, the same shape holds, down to the pieces everyone can open. What a collector locks to earn a place at each rung is Chapter 7's subject. This chapter is about sizing and pricing the rungs once that mapping is set.
The everyday supply has the same shape as the drop: a top layer of premium packs, a middle layer of Chance Hit packs, and a base layer anyone can buy from in bulk (on Top Shot, the Trade Ticket store). Inside the top layer, think of each piece by the job it does, not only by which Moment or pin unlocks it:
| Tier | The job | Usually |
|---|---|---|
| S | The scarcest, most prestigious offer — the top aspiration | Sells first |
| A | Premium and scarce, directly below S | Expected to sell out |
| B | The core premium offer, carrying most of the earned access | Expected to sell out |
| Chance offer | A broad chance at something good, open to more collectors | Sells out after S, A and B |
| Open pack | The standard offer, available to everyone | Can stay on sale |
The letters are a way to think about the ladder, not a requirement to build five separate products — a drop can run this logic with fewer.
The rule: Tier S, A and B should consistently sell out, with contents worth more on average than their price, checked across the full range of outcomes, not just the average pulled up by a few huge hits. Every tier carries a guaranteed floor. Give every layer its own smaller chase too: once collectors decide the big chase is out of reach, they stop buying unless the pack in front of them has something worth chasing.
S sells out, then A, then B, then the Chance Hit packs — each sellout is news that pushes the next, more cautious wave of collectors down the ladder, the same mechanism as the dominoes in Chapter 2. The sequence ends at the open pack, built to still be there when a collector is ready.
The scarcity in S, A and B is also what earned access is worth. The most engaged, best collectors earn a place in line for these tiers by owning and locking (Chapter 7), not by outspending everyone else. Spending on its own never buys the status; it can carry the right to place more orders once a collector has earned that place in line.
A requirement only works if enough collectors can clear it. Small lots of 1–10 prizes all filled. A lot sized at 129 per rookie was only 57–67% claimed, already too high for most collectors to reach. Size the climb to the edition in front of you, not to what feels generous on a slide.
Internal lot-sizing data: 37 upgrade auctions sized at 1–10 prizes all filled; the one lot sized at 129 was 57–67% claimed.
The same discipline applies to the priority allocation and the priority draw — Chapter 2's first two dominoes. Size them to sell out, not to avoid disappointing anyone. Making one fewer than demand is the lever.
An old industry maxim for the same discipline: Ferrari's stated rule is to always build one fewer car than the market demands.
These are Veblen goods: part of their value is that they're scarce and costly, so cutting the price lowers demand rather than raising it, and it makes everything already sold at that price look bad to the collectors who paid it. Leaving unsold supply sitting in the open marketplace undercuts the market the same way. Price never moves within a drop.
Instead, take the unsold supply off the marketplace and repackage it, into a later chase or spotlight pack, never by minting more. Supply is fixed at the announcement (Chapter 2); repackaging, not a lower price, absorbs what didn't sell.
Luxury brands run the same rule: public price cuts are rare, and clearance happens through private channels, never a storefront discount.
Examples of the move, not plans.
"Four ways in, sized to what you own."
"The same ladder, in pins."
The rungs stay the same. The reason to care changes with who's hearing it.
| Collector | What they hear | Where |
|---|---|---|
| Grail Collector | How few Courtside Boxes exist, and who the leaderboard says gets one | A personal email, and the drop page |
| Completionist | "Lock this set, and you qualify for the next rung up." | A push or in-app message triggered by their progress |
| Collector-Speculator | The chases: low-odds, big-swing hits in the Chance Hit packs | The drop page, and email |
| Social Fan | Their player or character in a Pack open to everyone, and trading toward the next rung | Social media, and push |
| Newcomer | The cheapest way in, and every pull counts toward something | The home screen, and social media |
A rung nobody can reach. Picture a requirement built to look generous on a slide: every rookie needs 100 Rares to climb a rung. The edition doesn't hold enough Rares for that, so clearing it would take more Commons than the edition contains. The rung looks like progress, but nobody can ever stand on it, and collectors stop trusting the rungs below it too.
A scarce tier that doesn't sell, and gets discounted. Picture a Tier A Box priced at [N] that doesn't sell through on day one. The instinct is to cut the price so the rest moves. Collectors who already paid full price now hold something the market just said is worth less, and the supply still sitting at the old price makes the whole tier look stale either way. Trust in the next drop's price goes with it.
The fix: if a requirement turns out too high, lower it in public before any collector has spent against it, not after. If a tier doesn't sell, take it off the marketplace and repackage it — never discount it, and never mint more to replace what didn't move.