Weekly purchasing users is the number that says whether a drop worked. Every other number explains what moved it, and whether the move will hold: priority orders, the dominoes, set completion, sell-through, sinks. Read them as one report, not a stack of separate charts.
An example, to show the difference.
Looks like success. Says nothing about who came back, or whether they'll come back again.
Each one says whether the number that matters will hold up next week.
Revenue and total packs sold move with a single drop and go quiet again. Weekly purchasing users moves only when a collector actually comes back, or a new one shows up for the first time.
Chapter 4 has the full list. Every report — before, during and after a drop — should say what happened to weekly buyers, not just to revenue.
The headline numbers while a drop is live are priority orders and the three dominoes: the priority allocation selling out, then the priority draw going oversubscribed, then the main draw going oversubscribed. Chapter 2 covers what each one means and who hears about it as it falls. Here, they're the leading read on how many new weekly buyers this drop is about to add.
A sell-out only proves people wanted in on the day. The real test of a drop's marketing is the completion rate: how many collectors go on to complete its sets, as buyers finishing the set rather than sellers listing what they pulled. After the drop: are people completing the set? That's how you know the marketing worked.
Four numbers say whether the system under weekly buyers is healthy: sell-through and time to sell out at every layer, whether sinks — locks, trade-ins, completions — keep up with new supply, how long a new collector takes to reach top-tier access (weeks, not seasons), and repeat buying in the middle layer, the chase packs from Chapter 6. None of these is the score. They say whether the score holds up next week.
A sell-out next to a falling completion rate isn't the success it looks like on its own. Quiet sell-through next to steady repeat buying can be healthier than it looks. Read weekly buyers, the drop's headline numbers, the completion read and the health numbers on one page, every week, not drop weeks only.
One page, due within 48 hours of the close: five numbers, three sentences on what happened, which kinds of collectors showed up and which didn't, and one change for the next drop — made before it starts, not filed away for later.
Examples of the move, not plans.
"The dominoes make the week's news. The completion rate makes the real read."
"A sell-out and a completed set are two different questions."
The full list of archetypes is in Chapter 4. Here's what each one moves, and where to look for it.
| Collector | What they move | Where it shows up |
|---|---|---|
| Grail Collector | Value, concentrated at the top | Priority allocation and the top tier's sell-through |
| Completionist | Value, and repeat buying | The set-completion rate, and locks and trade-ins |
| Collector-Speculator | Value, in large swings | Marketplace activity, and the chase packs' sell-through |
| Social Fan | Count, and a weekly habit | Entry-pack sales, game engagement, and social media |
| Newcomer | Count, and first purchases | First-purchase conversion, and the free path |
Declared a success too early. A drop sells out, the three dominoes fall, and the team calls it a win. A month later, almost nobody has completed the set, and most of what collectors pulled is already listed for sale rather than kept. The sell-out was real. The marketing wasn't, because nothing it sold made anyone want to finish what they bought.
The fix: put the completion rate and the buyers-versus-sellers read in the post-drop brief, not just the sell-out. Hold the declaration until that number is in, and change the next drop's story before its priority allocation goes up.